You don’t pinch-hit for the Rookie of the Year
In what’s been a pretty terrific year in baseball so far, a lot of team and individual races have come down to the last weekend of the season. One that I’ve been tracking is the National League Rookie of the Year race. Everyone says it’s down to Willy Taveras of the Astros, Jeff Francoeur of the Braves, and the Phillies’ Ryan Howard.
Tonight, the Astros were in a game that they needed to win to keep the Phillies’ chance of winning the wild card at slim to none. With two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning, they had a runner on third base. Any hit ties the game. Taveras is up. Exactly where you’d like your Rookie of the Year candidate to be.
And the Astros pinch-hit for him. With Orlando Palmeiro. Unless it’s a particularly awful year for rookies, you don’t pinch-hit for the Rookie of the Year in that situation…and you certainly don’t pinch-hit for him with Orlando Palmeiro.
It isn’t a great year for rookies, but it isn’t an awful one either. What the Astros did there shows that Francoeur and Howard are far more highly regarded by their teams than Taveras is by his. Sounds like this Rookie of the Year competition should be a two-man race.
In case you’re curious, yes, I think Howard should win. He plays for the Phillies, therefore I have to root for him. But more importantly, with Jim Thome this team could’ve collapsed. Howard is one of the biggest reasons why they’re still in the race.
Michael Rawdon Said,
October 1, 2005 @ 3:58 pm
Actually, I think the Astros made a good call here, for several reasons:
1) Taveras is not a good hitter. He’s hitting 289/323/338 on the year. He’s not going to win Rookie of the Year or come anywhere close. Better candidates among NL hitters: Howard, Francoeur, Rickie Weeks, Wilson Betemit, Ryan Church, JJ Hardy. Even Clint Barmes is probably a better candidate, despite his lost playing time. Pitchers with a better case include Zach Duke, Robertson Tejeda, Matt Cain and Paul Maholm. This is not an indication that all of these guys are great players, but more of an indictment of Taveras’ hitting skills.
2) Orlando Palmeiro has been a better hitter this year. Palmeiro is batting 286/342/433 this year (albeit in less playing time).
3) Ryan Dempster was on the mound, and he’s a right-handed pitcher. Taveras is a right-handed batter, while Palmeiro is left-handed. So Palmeiro has the platoon advantage. Taveras is batting better against righties than against lefties, but still not as well as Palmeiro. (With a man on third base and two outs, you could make a case that Taveras’ ability to hit a single is slightly higher than Palmeiro’s, but the statistical evidence is too slim to make that call, I think.)
The real reason the Astros lost that game is that Brad Lidge finally blew a save oppoertunity. It happens. Sometimes it even happens at the worst times. But that’s what makes for a dramatic finish to the season.